[10NL] TT...SB vs BU. Line Check

Had history w/ villain. AF is 3, FT3B% is 83%. villain is capable of firing 3 streets as bluff. Villain knows I will call him down w/ marginal hands if he has been paying attention.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $20.31 (VPIP: 19.44, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 3.45, Hands: 73)
CO: $10.00 (VPIP: 22.73, PFR: 20.45, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 46)
BTN: $21.23 (VPIP: 25.85, PFR: 17.69, 3Bet Preflop: 5.08, Hands: 151)
Hero (SB): $10.00
BB: $11.84 (VPIP: 23.33, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 30)

Hero posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has T T

fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.25, fold

Flop: ($0.70, 2 players) 2 5 3
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.50, 2 players) K
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.90, Hero calls $0.90

River: ($3.30, 2 players) 6
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.20, Hero calls $2.20

I decided not to 3bet because he raises w/ so much air and folds to a pretty high amount of 3b's. That's pretty much my reasoning for not raising anywhere in this hand, I want to keep all of his air in his range and let him keep firing.

I wasn't sure on the turn though. One of the worst cards that could peel (an over that completes FD's)

I like it but then again look at my graph.

3-bet PRE, TT is marginal to play for an overpair OOP. It's good to adjust to Villain's folding too much, but that should be that you 3-bet more, not less. If you choose to stop and go with some hands, do it with QQ+.

C-bet flop. If C-bet gets raised, either decide to go with it or not. Ax has gutshots, 4x has OESD and there are spade draws, so you might assume Villain bluffs a ton at this board, but realistically, you don't have too much equity against those hands. You have to decide to make a huge play for thin value or a fold and wait for fat value.

@abelardx: Just because someone has leaks in their game doesn't mean that their thought process is incorrect.

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

3-bet PRE, TT is marginal to play for an overpair OOP. It's good to adjust to Villain's folding too much, but that should be that you 3-bet more, not less

That's a bit of an oversimplification. If villain folds too much, we should be bluffing more for sure. But that doesn't mean we should be turning hands with value into bluffs.

The more villain calls 3bets, the more we should 3bet value hands and the less we should 3bet bluffs.

The less villain calls 3bets, the more we should 3bet bluffs and the less we should 3bet value hands.

What do your raise and call ranges look like in SB against a BTN open from this Villain in a 5-handed game?

I'm finding it hard to imagine ranges where TT+ isn't in the value portion of raises.

TT is in my value range here but that is because I think villain will call enough, not because I think he will fold enough.

I'd 3bet pre because 3bet hand sample is small and hard to believe he's 25/17 over 150 hands and a nit when it comes to 3bets

I think you should be 3betting for value here, 150 hand sample isn't enough for a 3bet stat to have any relevance imo. How many 3bets has he faced in that sample?

I've spent about 2 hours analysing this hand breaking down combos giving him a 50% opening range which I think is pretty wide and would be happy making it tighter.

Value Bets - 22/33/44/55/66/KK, AA/AK/KQ/KJ, A4/K4, AQs-A2s, QJs/Q9s/Q8s/Q7s/Q6s/Q4s/Q2s, J9s-J6s, 98s/97s/96s, 87s/86s, 76s, 64s - 194/1326 (14.6%)

hecks Back - QQ/JJ/TT/99/88/77, KT-K2 - (7.7%)

Bluffs - AQ/AJ/AT/A9/A8/A7/A6/A5/A3/A2, QJ/QT/Q9, JT - 438/1326 (15.9%)
AQs-A5s/A3s/A2s, KJs-K7s, QJs-Q9s, JTs/J9s, T9s/89s (I've given him roughly 50% of hands to bluff of the suited range and tried to include hands which have blockers to strong flushes)

Give up - 12%

Based on the numbers above I think it's a fold, 14.6% is value and 15.9% is a bluff but we are giving a 10nl reg credit for barrelling 3 streets as a bluff based on such a small sample which I think is quite ambiguous. So his bluff range could actually be tighter than 15.9%.

Hope this helps as I've spent quite a while on it but found it to be an interesting spot.

I don't think calling the river here is good, I think you can either raise the river, or just fold.